Australia and the World Past and Present

In 2023 a number of candidates declared their candidacy for the Republican presidential primaries.

Overshadowing them all was Donald Trump. Other candidates included Ron DeSantis (Governor of Florida), Nikki Haley (former Ambassador to the United Nations and Vivek Ramaswamy (an executive working in wealth management).

Donald Trump

Trump enjoyed popular support, reflected in polling, early in his primary campaign and throughout. He was always in front of the pack. At the start of 2023 his closest rival was DeSantis however Trump still maintained a significant lead. Trump enjoyed a steady increase in support throughout 2023 and into 2024.

What is even more remarkable is that this was achieved while bypassing a traditional activity for candidates – taking part in in-person debates with other nominees. Trump already has name recognition. He is so well-known and appears in the media to such an extent that he had no need to rely on the traditional platform to advance his campaign. He was much more focused on social media. He was probably the first ‘social media President’.

Ron DeSantis

DeSantis’ polling steadily declined throughout 2023. The Florida Governor is a graduate of Yale and Harvard and had served in the military. As Governor he had signed bills banning abortions for 6 weeks after pregnancy, banning the instruction of sexual orientation and gender in schools, ensuring that people in schools were not required to use pronouns if they didn’t correspond to person’s sex and allowing residents to carry concealed guns without a permit. He also had planes chartered to transport asylum seekers and migrants from Texas to Massachusetts in response to the situation at the border with Mexico.

Nikki Haley

At the beginning of 2023, Haley was languishing with the rest of the pack. She didn’t see significant movement in her numbers until the later half of the year when she started a steady increase. By January 2024, she was polling higher than DeSantis. Haley has had significant political experience. She was a State Representative in South Carolina as well as Governor of that state. She was also Ambassador to the United Nations in the Trump Administration. She had worked with Trump in the past and knew him well. In entering the primary race, she became a potential rival to her one-time boss.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek was born in Ohio. His campaign strategy seemed to largely consist of overall support for Trump. Given Trump’s overwhelming support within the GOP at the current time attacking Trump in the primaries is a risky business. On the other hand, if there is no differentiation, why would any Republican delegates switch their vote? Its not possible to be more Trump than Trump. Vivek asserted that, if President, he would pardon Trump. Vivek said that he also would abolish the Department and Education and the FBI.

The January 15 Iowa caucuses. Trump swept the floor on January 15. DeSantis and Ramaswamy dropped out of the race after Iowa.

The January 23 New Hampshire Primary

Trump defeated Haley.

The February 24 South Carolina Primary

This was an important contest for Haley. South Carolina was her home state. If should couldn’t win in own state it was difficult to see how she would ever be able to overcome Trump’s dominance.

Super Tuesday

It was as though Trump was the star of his own reality television show again. 845 delegates were up for grabs (35% of the total). Trump won 14 out of 15 states. He lost Vermont, but this was a tiny bump in the overall outcome. Haley dropped out of the race after Super Tuesday.

March 12 Washington Primary

Trump attained the delegate numbers necessary to become the presumptive nominee. Overall, trump received 74.8% of the popular vote while Haley received 21.3%.

Trump dominates the GOP. Younger, dynamic conservatives such as DeSantis can’t get up. More centrist candidates are not attractive to Republican members or delegates. Even strong Trump supporters can’t get a look-in.