Australia and the World Past and Present

There are many factors that determine which side will emerge victorious in war.

There are exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking, the side with the most resources will usually be the victor.

Global Firepower looks as a county’s ‘war-making’ ability and gathers data on 6o elements relating to a country’s military power.

According to Global Power, Russia scores higher than Ukraine on almost every metric.

For 2024, the figures are as follows:

Ukraine has a total manpower figure of 43,306,477 while Russia has 141,698,923.

Those regarded as ‘fit-for-service’ in Ukraine number 15,460,412 while in Russia they number 46,477,237.

Ukraine’s active personnel stands at 900,000 while Russia’s stands at 1,320,000.

The defense budget for Ukraine is substantially smaller than Russia’s. The figures are 42 billion versus 109 billion.

Ukraine has 72 fighter aircraft while Russia has 809.

Russia has significantly more attack helicopters with 559 compared to Ukraine’s 33.

The tank strength of Ukraine (1,777) is dwarfed by Russia’s (14,777).

Russia has many more Mobile Rocket Projectors (3,065) compared to Ukraine’s 491.

Oil production in Ukraine is 60,000 barrels versus Russia’s 10,750,000 barrels.

War is not cheap. The Pentagon has estimated that the war has cost Russia 211 billion dollars and has seen 315,000 Russian troops killed or wounded.

Some analysts describe the current situation as a stalemate.

Ukraine faces the perennial problem of sourcing enough ammunition to keep up with the Russians.

Foreign military support for Ukraine has principally come from the United States and NATO counties.

It is much easier for Putin to acquire arms than Ukraine. Putin simply orders his military to expand production and it is done. He does not need to appease other politicians or other sections of government.

Putin is not at the mercy of elections the same way as the leaders of Western democracies are.

What he will be mindful of however, it that public sentiment does not turn against him to such an extent that it forments uprisings which could lead to a movement to overthrow him.

The leaders of the Western democracies have to contend with regular elections, opposition politicians and parties that press for greater public spending on domestic problems. Arms commitments have to pass budget processes.

In the US, attention is focused on the upcoming Presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden has shown himself to be engaged with the Ukraine issue and is a powerful supporter of military assistance to Ukraine. Trump argues for a more isolationist approach.

In 2023, Ukraine used around 2.3 million shells. To some extent, Ukraine has grown tired of coming cap-in-hand to Western donors, asking for equipment again and again. As a result, Ukraine has decided to ramp up domestic arms production in order to become more self-sufficient. However, it will take some time to establish the factories and capacity that is required.

What hasn’t yet been mentioned is world opinion on the legality and morality of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On 12 October 2022, the UN adopted Resolution ES 11/4 stating that the referendums in Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia and Russia’s annexation of these regions were illegal under international law.

143 states voted in support of the Resolution while 5 were against.

Only North Korea and Syria have recognised the Russian annexation of the four occupied regions of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces a daunting task in holding off Russia’s invasion.

On most military metrics, Ukraine is at a disadvantage. It is harder for Ukraine to unilaterally produce weaponry than it is for Russia.

Additionally, weaponry from countries friendly to Ukraine is subject to change, delay and possibly reduction in the future as ‘donor’ fatigue sets in.