Australia and the World Past and Present

On the 26th of June, troops led by General Juan José Zúñiga occupied the Plaza Murillo in La Paz and moved on to the Palacio Quemado where the current President, Luis Acre, ordered him to stand down.

There is some dispute as to whether this was a genuine coup attempt at all – more on that later.

Coups are nothing new in Bolivia.

The previous President, Evo Morales, claims that he was victim of a coup after serving more than thirteen years in power.

Between 1950 and 2019 there were 23 coup attempts. Many of these coups were successful. 12 of them were not.

From 1964 to 1982, Bolivia had a succession of military dictators.

Between 1971 and 1978 Hugo Banzer led a military dictatorship in the country. Repression was harsh. At the same time, the economy was relatively stable.

From the end of Banzer’s rule to the return to democracy in 1982 the country seesawed back and forth between civil and military governments. It was time of great political instability with ten governments in the space of a few years.

1982 is seen by many as a big turning point in Bolivian politics.

Since this time the army has largely stayed out politics.

What is the norm in Bolivia?

If we accept that 1982 was the restoration of democracy and that is the legitimate form of government for the country then the possible coups against Morales and Acre would be exceptional events.

However, if we take a longer view of Bolivian history and see that since independence in 1825 there have been around 200 coups and countercoups then perhaps one might argue that this is the norm.

If that is the case it would mean that the last few decades of realtive democracy is an aberration and we can expect that national politics will continue to be bedeviled by instability and changes of government by force.

Why has the military been relatively strong in Bolivia?

Bolivia has been a ripe terrain in which coups can thrive.

There has been much economic instability. At times the military has stepped in when it believed that the government was at crisis point and order needed to be restored.

The Cold War was a factor. The US was keen to support military regimes if they demonstarted that they were pro-American and pro-capitalist while being hostile to communist groups and ideology.

Bolivian politics often followed a pattern of radical reform followed by militray intervention.

The Chaco war with Paraguay (1932-35) was an important event for the country. Bolivia lost the war but the military argued that it was the guardian of Bolivia’s national interests.

Why are political institutions and civil society relatively weak?

First of all, the political landscape is very fractured. Leadership within parties also changes a lot. The scene is volitile.

The period between 1982 and the rise of Morales was a period of ‘pact politics’. In other words, parties had to create alliances in order to govern. Morales was able to achieve a majority and so this became less of an issue when he was in power.

Crucially, there is a lack of conflict resolution mechanisms within government. Judical independence in Bolivia is relatively weak.

Civil society is divided by ethniticy. It is also divided by region and class. This means that it is difficult for a government to maintain a strong sense of unity and it also difficult for a political opposition to be strong and effective.

When there have been military regimes they have often resorted to the repression of political dissidents and organisations which critique the regime. This has had the effect of stunting civil society.

Also, because so many struggle to make a living they are left with little time to devote towards political or civic activites.

Tin, silver and more recently, lithium and natural gas are all important resources for the Bolivian economy.

Bolivia has had a resource-based economy. That is to say, much of the country’s wealth comes from resource rents and not as much effort was put into developing robust taxation systems in order to increase revenue streams from citizens.

Boliva has many important minerals but these resources are linked to global commity prices which can crash suddenly. The Bolivian economy has been characterised by periods of boom and bust. This increases the chance that the military will step into the political realm.

The Acre coup – an autocoup?

Many see the most recent coup against Luis Acre as a ‘autocoup’. It has been alleged that the actions of Zuniga were instigated by the President himself and were nothing more than a spectacle designed to portray Acre as under attack from Morales. In ordering Zuniga back to the barracks Acre could make himself look strong.

This may well be the case. The action on the part of the troops appeared to be lukewarm. An armoured vehicle destroyed the main gate of the Palacio Quemado but thats about all. The Police were not party to the coup.

Many analysts see the whole episode as result of tensions between Morales and Acre. They are from the same political party – the Movement for Socialism (MAS) but have had a falling out in recent years. Morales has been critical of Acre’s government and Acre seems to want to ensure that Morales does not have another term.

Coups have a long history in this Andean nation. The country has seen many positive developments since 1982. The latest coup attempt does seem to have been a piece of pantomime but the main protagonists may be playing with fire. The good of the nation is bigger than any one individual. The most important thing is not whether Acre or Morales wins the next election but whether the country will continue to strengthen its political instiutions and civil society.