Australia and the World Past and Present

Ukraine’s rapid entry into Russian territory has come as a surprise move and has caught Putin’s army off guard.

Ukraine has taken 28 Russian villages. The Russians claim that Ukraine has penetrated 12 kilometers inside the border across a 40 kilometer front.

Ukraine’s President Volodmyr Zelenskyy has claimed that Ukraine controls a thousand square kilometers.

But will it pay off for Ukraine?

The main battleground of the current conflict has been the east and southeast of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s recent advance has shifted attention to the northeast.

Russia clearly wasn’t expecting such a move and is now scrambling to come up with a response.

There are some possible consequences of the latest Ukrainian move:

1. It strikes a psychological blow to Putin and his forces. Until now Ukraine has had to fight a defensive war, fighting Russian soldiers on Ukrainian territory. The move allows Zelenskyy to claim that Ukraine is making gains and that Russia is struggling more than people realise. The invasion is likely to raise concerns within Russia about Putin’s ability to win the war.
2. Zelenskyy will be hoping that the move will cause a diversion of resources from the southeast and relieve the pressure on his troops there.

But the move comes with risks:

1. Ukraine’s latest move takes resources away from their operations in the southeast.
2. If the Russians don’t take the bait and stay in the southeast, there may be more opportunities for them to break through there.
3. Part of the international community’s objection to Russia’s invasion is that it has violated Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders. Up to this point, Ukraine has been seen as the defender and not the aggressor. That will be harder to sustain the longer Ukrainian forces stay on Russian soil.

Some have suggested that Ukraine may be attempting to gain territory for some future land swap. Russia has taken a large swathe of Ukrainian territory since the beginning of the war. Putin wants to keep this land in any final peace deal. If Ukraine can not take back this land through force, they may be keen on taking Russian land elsewhere.

Ukraine’s move to the northeast is a bold one and time will tell whether it strengthens or weakens their hand.