Australia and the World Past and Present

We need to talk about Kevin.

The planets have realigned in the US and we need to consider whether Kevin Rudd will be able to remain in President Trump’s orbit.

There is one thing that Rudd could stress with Trump. They do have something in common. They have both been the leader of their respective countries – twice.

Both have energy to burn.

Both are engaged in endless self-promotion.

But perhaps the associations end there.

Rudd started his working life as a professional diplomat. Intellectual. Well-traveled. Knowledgeable about public policy, international norms and international forums. He is a believer in multilateralism and the United Nations.

Rudd transitioned into politics, first in his home state of Queensland (working for Wayne Goss) and then in federal parliament.

After politics he had a stint as President and CEO of Asia Society (2021-2023) and had a go at seeking Australia’s nomination for the top job at the United Nations. That did not go way he planned.

Part of Rudd’s troubles stem from his time at the Asia Society. Released from the shackles that apply when one is Foreign Minister or Prime Minister, he got used to not minding his ps and qs. He talked freely about this thoughts on Trump.

In social media Rudd called Trump a “traitor to the West” and the “most destructive president in history.”

Trump returned fire this year. He called Rudd “a little bit nasty” and “not the brightest bulb”.

When Labor came into government he was appointed ambassador to the US. Not a bad choice when the sitting President is Joe Biden. Biden and Rudd come from the same side of politics. Both have an understanding and an appreciation for international forums.

Rudd would have been crossing his fingers that Harris won. But it wasn’t to be and now he has to deal with a new reality.

Rudd is pragmatic enough to see which way the wind is blowing. As Peter Dutton remarked Rudd will now be “buying red ties [and] MAGA hats”.

Rudd will have to kowtow to Trump if the relationship is to be reestablished. This does not come naturally to Rudd who is used to getting his way and likes to dominate any relationship.

Should Rudd be replaced?

Should we bring back Joe Hockey who managed to get a tariff exemption for Australian steel and aluminum during the first Trump administration?

Hockey is a Liberal so current Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, will never go for the idea.

But should Rudd be replaced with another Labor figure? I am trying to think of a senior Labor figure who likes Trump. I can’t think of any.

Will Trump let bygones be bygones? Or will he hold a grudge?

He reportedly won’t let Nikki Haley back into his fold.

But it looks like another challenger from past Republican primaries – Marco Rubio – will have a key post in Trump’s new administration.

Maybe Trump forgives unkind comments if they are said just to win a competition. It might be a different matter if he thinks they reflect genuinely-held beliefs.

Let’s give Rudd a little more time to see what he can pull off. Trump is unpredictable.

The US-Australia relationship should be air-tight. It certainly should be above any individual – even the whims of a US president. But Trump doesn’t necessarily see things that way. Foreign policy under Trump often feels like a game of two-up (that quintessential Australian game of chance).

Kevin, you had better put on a red tie and a MAGA cap, get out of the golf course with Trump and tell him he has a trade surplus with Australia. And by the 18th hole make sure you have that tariff exception in the bag.