Australia and the World Past and Present

Why did so many Latinos vote for Trump in the recent US election?

One the surface it may seem counter-intuitive.

Historically, many Latinos have voted Democrat. The Democrats were seen as being more responsive and sympathetic to minorities within the United States.

Many Latinos are either descendants of family members who have immigrated to the US or they have immigrated there themselves.

When you think of a poster-boy for Latinos, Donald Trump is not one who comes to mind. In the run up to his previous term as president, he made illegal immigration a central issue. He famously wanted to build a wall between the US and Mexico. Upon coming into office that is exactly what he proceeded to do. It was presented as a simple solution for a complicated problem.

In the past Trump has said of Mexican immigrants “They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”

This year he suggested that Haitian immigrants were pet eaters. He said “In Springfield, they are eating the dogs. The people that came in, they are eating the cats. They are eating the pets of the people that live there.”

At one his rallies before the 2024 election, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”.

On the face of it, it seemed that the more Trump disparaged Latinos the more they voted for him. But that doesn’t make a lot of sense. There must have been something else going on.

According to analysis by the Americas Society Council of the Americas which is based on exit polls, a majority of Latinos did vote for Harris.

But the crucial thing is that Trump improved on his 2016 performance where he garnered only 28% of Latino votes and 2020 where he received 32%. This time around the figure shot up to 47%.

In Florida scored a whopping 64% of Latino men voted for Trump and the same figure can be seen in Texas.

How did Trump get so many Latino votes?

The reason might be relatively simple.

Perhaps it was the economy.

Clinton strategist James Carville is credited with coining the line “it’s the economy, stupid” during Bill Clinton’s 1992 election win over George H.W. Bush. Maybe it is that simple.

There is not doubt that the general health of the economy is an important factor that influences people’s vote come election time.

Trump hammered this theme home repeatedly asking Americans whether they felt better off than than four years ago. And many didn’t.

Many Americans feel that their country is on the wrong path. They believe that they are not getting ahead. They see that they are hammered each time they go the supermarket and see that the prices are increasing due to inflation. Biden’s explanation that he is cleaning up the mess from the first Trump presidency did not cut through. Whether it is true or not, for many Americans that is ancient history and they simply don’t accept their commander-in-chief pointing the finger at someone else for their current predicament.

Many Latinos are socially conservative. Many come from countries that are strongly Catholic. Family is important. Community is important. Religion is important. Many of the woke issues that preoccupy some citizens in western countries may be quite foreign to them.

Many come from countries in Latin America that have experimented with socialism to varying degrees. Much of those experiments have ended very badly and have taken a huge economic and social toll on citizens. Many Latinos in the US left their country of birth precisely to get away from socialist polices and governments. Venezuela is a case in point.

Many Latinos are chasing the American dream, perhaps more so than citizens born in the US. The idea that you can rise to the top of the economic or social ladder through education and hard work appeals to them. They are aspirational. They want to take opportunities. They are willing to take risks. They want to try owning their own businesses. They are capitalists.

And who personifies the capitalist dream more than Donald Trump? He is the guy with the swagger. He is the macho man who had his own TV show. He has skyscrapers built. He owns his own resorts.

Some have suggested that there is a distinction between Latinos that have come to the US legally and those who have come illegally. Perhaps that is why Trump has seen his support rise even though he has so many tough words for illegal immigrants. Latinos who have made the proper applications, waited their time and paid their fees to get citizenship may not look too kindly upon those who have not followed the same process.

According to exit polls, Latino men were even more likely to vote for Trump than Latino women. They may be particularly concerned about being able to find employment and then in being able to keep their employment. Latinos already established in the US may view other Latinos arriving illegally as unwelcome competition for work.

Some Latinos say that the Democrats have taken their support for granted for too long. If that is the case, perhaps they feel that it is time to shake things up and have a change. At the very least it is likely to get the Democrats to refocus on this constituency and think about new policies to deliver to this cohort.

It remains to be seen whether the Latino vote in the 2024 elections represents a temporary bump for Republicans or whether it is a more major realignment of support amongst the major parties.