Australia and the World Past and Present

The fall of the Assad regime has shuffled many pieces around on the chess board of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

There are different groups operating in different parts of the country but the most influential at the moment seems to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or ‘HTS’.

Unlike Assad himself who was Alawite most HTS members are Sunni. There is a bit a debate at the moment over whether HTS is Islamist or not. HTS has members within its ranks who were linked to Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Time will reveal the exact nature of HTS and actions will speak louder than words.

The Kurds control north east Syria. Turkey is not keen on the Kurds gaining further ground. Turkey has its own Kurdish population and is worried about the those in Syria fermenting rebellion within Turkey.

Turkey has de facto control over much of northern Syria. Turkey has emerged with much more influence in Syria since the toppling of Assad. There are around 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey and it is hoped that they can return to their homeland now that Assad has gone.

It is not yet fully clear whether the removal of Assad will be a good thing or a negative thing for Israel. On the one hand Syria was on good terms with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran is vehemently anti-Israel and has been supporting groups hostile to Israel for a long time. While Assad was in power Iran’s support for Hezbollah could be transited through Syria. With Assad gone this link is broken. Israel has moved its own soldiers to create a buffer zone on its border with Syria. Israel had decided that it could live with Assad in power in Syria. Assad wasn’t lobbing missiles into Israel in the manner that Iran and Hezbollah have been in the last year or so. The worry was that Assad might be replaced with a group even more hostile to Israel – probably a Islamist group.

A short time ago Israel was in a much more precarious position. Not only has it been fighting Hamas in Gaza but Hezbollah joined the fray as did Iran. Israel was fighting on all fronts and was surrounded by hostile groups. Israel had been able to get inside Hezbollah’s communications supply line and activated explosive material inside their pagers and walkie talkies. This action significantly hindered the group’s ability to communicate and coordinate military action against Israel. The fall of Assad is much more crucial. It weakens Hezbollah and Iran. Iran’s influence as a regional player has taken a hit.

Likewise, Russia has taken a hit. Russia was a key backer of the Assad regime. Assad had been deserted by western powers. The Obama administration had wanted Assad out in 2011. Russia had propped up Assad in 2015 when he was on the verge of falling. But Russia has had to focus on its war with Ukraine. Russia now has less influence in the Middle East and less ability to project its power into other nations in the region.

Power dynamics in the Middle East have changed substantially in the Middle East in the last year and particularly since the fall of Assad. Events remain very unpredictable. Many will now be looking at Syria and whether HTS will be able to solidify effective control and governance over the entire country or whether Syria is destined for a prolonged period of as a fragmented state.