Australia and the World Past and Present

Otherwise known as the TKR, the Trans-Kalahari Railway has long been talked about but remains unfulfilled.

The rationale for the line is largely about transferring coal from Botswana to Namibia’s coast for export to international markets.

Therefore, construction of the line is inextricably linked to fluctuating coal demand.

The viability of the project is tied to the global coal market.

However with focus on climate change and the associated need for decarbonisation around the world, there is much discussion around how buoyant coal prices will be in the short, medium and long-term.

This uncertainty has led to hesitation from investors.

The line will require substantial capital investment.

Estimates range from $US 9-15 billion.

Creation of the railway is not the only priority for the governments of Namibia and Botswana. They also need to focus on poverty alleviation and health.

Both countries have signed the Paris Accord on climate change. Even if neither country uses coal for their own electricity generation, some would argue that the supplying of coal to other nations would be contrary to the spirit of the Accord.

The proposed line would have to run through the Kalahari Desert.

The project would require environmental impact assessments which would add time and money.

Namibia and Botswana would have to come to agreement on cost-sharing for construction, operations management and revenue sharing.

The vast majority of the line would have to built in Botswana. Namibia already has rail infrastructure only a few hundred kilometers from the border. Namibia may be likely to argue that as the main beneficiary would be Botswana (from the export of its coal) then it is only fair that Botswana should foot the majority of the bill for construction of the line.

A key sticking point may be transit fees imposed by Namibia. What is to stop Namibia from significantly jacking up transit fees once the line has been finished? To ensure that this doesn’t happen Botswana may seek to lock in a long-term arrangement – perhaps lasting decades to ensure that it is not stung further down the track. Pardon the pun.

Would a Trans-Kalahari become a white elephant? Would the reality match the vision or would the line remain underutilised, baking away in the sands of the Kalahari desert? Is energy generation from coal an outdated industry going the way of the dodo? Perhaps the line could also be used to get Botswana’s agricultural products to the Namibian market. Maybe, but Namibia’s relatively small population raises the question of whether the reward will outweigh the effort. Would it be preferable over the existing road trade? Perhaps Botswana’s eastern neighbours could benefit from also moving their agricultural products to the Namibian market. Again, the limited Namibian market puts a damper on prospects for the line.

From an engineering point of view, construction may be relatively straight forward. The land is relatively flat. There are no large mountains to carve or tunnel through. Large cities along the proposed line are non-existent removing many problems of land acquisition and population relocation that would be required in other parts of the world.

The line would probably pass close to Buitepos on the Namibian side of the border which only has a population of around 4000 people.

The line would then probably extend on to Mamuno or Charles Hill on Botswana’s side of the border. The population of Charles Hill stands at around 3,500 as of 2011.

Then to Phuduhudu (population around 500) and then on to Rasesa (around 2500 people). From here it could join the existing rail network to reach the important mineral fields in the north-east.

Namibia and Botswana held talks from 2010-2014 and propose to build the line on a BOOT model – build, own, operate and transfer.

According to recent press releases it seems that the project is going full steam ahead. In recent years the project has been progressing through an expression of interest phase and a pre-qualification phase. Construction will reportedly begin in early 2025.