Australia and the World Past and Present

I have been writing a lot about Trump recently.

I think there’s a bunch of things going on with Trump.

1. First is the marriage of entertainment and politics. To be fair, this connection has been present in politics from day dot. There is along history of stump speeches in the US. Getting people riled up. Getting them energised. Plain-speaking pollies and projections of power. Reagan was a an ex movie star. But he was smooth while Trump is abrasive is if not downright abusive. As I have noted before, Trump has changed the very nature of one of the major political parties in the US. One would have expected a career politician to undertake such a role. One would think that a Bill Clinton or a Bush would have been more effective in changing the essence of their parties. But they weren’t. Americans have rejected the Establishment. Trump was not poor to begin with. But he is not Establishment either. He became the vehicle through which dissatisfied and disaffected Americans could take a wrecking ball to government system that they believed took them for granted.

2. The extent to which Trump is testing the boundaries of executive power as President. Executive orders are flying thick and fast. Trump’s ability to use them is fast and nimble. They remain in force unless they are struck down by the courts – and this always takes time. It is probably the case that every president has tried to increase their power while in office. It is much harder to find an example where they have relinquished their power or decentralised it. It remains to be seen to what extent Trump will change the relationship between the three branches of government. Still, Trump will not be President for ever. At the present time, the Constitution limits a president to 2 terms. Trump will not be able to be President again…unless there is a change to the Constitution. And I wouldn’t rule out such a suggestion to be put forward before the end of the term. The US hasn’t always had the 2-term restriction. FDR had 4 terms and he is remembered as one of the greatest of American presidents. There are many precedents around the world where the restriction on presidential terms in constitutions has been removed so that serving leaders can continue in the role. However, when it has happened many leaders have turned in autocrats or dictators.

3. A showdown seems to emerging between the President and the Judiciary. Democrats are relatively powerless – at least until the mid-terms and if they gain control of one of the houses of government they may be able to start to putting a handbrake on some of Trumps actions. But at the current time it is the judiciary that either lets executive orders stand or shoots them down. Add to this the fact the Trump appointed 3 of the current 7 Supreme Court Justices. He nominated them because he likes how they think. But he can’t control them now. It will be interesting to see what gets the thumbs up and what get the thumb down and perhaps the legal justifications behind the decisions.

4. The upending of long-established international norms. Isolationism is American foreign policy is nothing new. There is a pendulum that swings back and forth between isolationism and engagement with the rest of the world. Since the end of World War II, all American presidents have sought to contain or oppose the USSR / Russia to some degree or another. NATO seems to be in tatters at the moment. The US is the most powerful and consequential member of the alliance. For whatever reason, Trump seems to be on more cosy terms with Putin than Zelensky. Instead of calling Putin a dictator, it it Zelenksy who draws his fire. Russia invaded a sovereign country in central Europe with a pro-Western outlook. Any other US President would have been sympathetic towards Ukraine and yet Trump wants Zelensky to agree to some kind of ceasefire even though Russia still holds vast swathes of the country. Trump has gone as far as halting military assistance to Ukraine which will obviously have a devastating impact on the country’s ability to fight. How much assistance should the US provide Ukraine? To what extent should Ukraine pay back this support? When will the war end? These are all legitimate questions for Americans and their politicians. However, Trump could at least pay lip service to supporting Ukraine – for standing up against coercion and aggression. But he doesn’t even do this. Under Biden, the US was a bedrock for NATO. European leaders will be asking themselves which side is the US now on?

5. Captain Chaos rises to the top. Normally the leaders of large organisations or countries show consistency in their actions and decisions. The opposite is true for Trump. And this has been true to this throughout all of his endeavours. It was evident in his business career. He showed it during his time on the The Apprentice. It had been remarked before that his leadership style seems to be about pitting people against each other and seeing what rises out of the turbulence. He seems to play his own company managers or government operatives off against each other. It is a wonder that any company survives this. Now it is being played out in the most powerful government in the world.