Australia and the World Past and Present

Since the Cuban Revolution in 1959, 7 former guerillas have become president of their respective countries.

Fidel and Raúl Castro in Cuba, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua and José Mujica in Uruguay.

Dilma Rouseff rose to the presidency in Brazil, Salvador Sánchez Cerén in El Salvador and Gustavo Petro in Colombia.

The Cuban and Nicaraguan revolutions were successful revolutions – in the sense that they had been able to remove the dictatorships that had preceded them.

The militant groups that Rouseff and Mujica had joined had not been able to overthrow the state. Both individuals were placed into jail and tortured. These two managed to achieve remarkable turnarounds and were elected president in their respective countries only 1 year apart – in 2010 and 2011.

In El Salvador and Colombia, the state had a harder time controlling insurgency groups than in Brazil or Uruguay. Peace agreements were signed and some ex-guerillas made the transition from armed conflict to politics.

Cerén came to power in 2014. Petro rose to the presidency in 2022.

Ortega has had multiple stints as president.

He was incarcerated between 1967 and 1974 for bank robbery. During his time in prison he was tortured. Upon release, he was exiled to Cuba where he trained in guerilla warfare.

He came to prominence in Nicaragua as part of the Junta of National Reconstruction which had come to power after the fall of the Somoza regime. Initially, the Junta was directed by 5 individuals. They were a diverse group. As well as former militants, the Junta included a novelist and a businessman. Over time, Ortega’s influence rose while that of the others declined. Sergio Ramírez and Violeta Barrios de Chamorro resigned. In 1981 Ortega became coordinator of the Junta.

His first stint as president ran from 1985 to 1990.

Ortega’s first presidency was relatively ideological. He pursued policies inspired by socialism. There was an attempt to increase the literacy rate in Nicaragua. There were vaccinations to eradicate polio. Ortega’s government carried out nationalisations.

President Reagan believed that Ortega was sponsoring insurrection in other Latin American countries. Reagan’s administration sold arms to Iran and the proceeds were illegally transferred to an insurrectionist group – the Contras. The Contras were based in Honduras and were aiding various insurrectionist groups opposed to the new Nicaraguan regime.

Ortega lost the Presidency to Violeta Barrios de Chamorro. The Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) was now in the political wilderness. The FSLN fractured and then split in 1996.

Ortega ran in elections again in 1996 and 2001 – losing both times.

Ortega seems to have had a certain pragmatism. During his first term, Ortega was Marxist in word and deed. In opposition his language seems to have become more accommodating. He put himself forward at every opportunity and contested elections. To those who considered Ortega a dictator, his supporters would point out that he fought elections and sometimes lost them.

In opposition, he sought out the Constitutional Liberal Party and with them created ‘El Pacto’. It was controversial because these two political parties were not natural bedfellows. It seemed like a marriage of convenience in order to re-secure power. It pointed to a more pragmatic and less ideological Ortega. One can detect a shape-shifting Ortega that could change his language and shift his political alliances. It seems that unchanging beliefs were becoming less important and that power was becoming a means in itself.

In 2001 he lost another election.

Ortega sought to expand his control within the FSLN too. In 2002 the National Directorate was abolished There were now less internal checks and balances on Ortega. His speech became more infused with religion. He tried to walk both sides of the street, trying to marry together Marxism and religion, which is probably like trying to mix oil and water.

When Ortega secured the presidency for the second time in 2007, he moved to entrench his power.

He won the 2011 election.

In 2014 term limits on the presidency were removed.

He won again in 2016, purportedly with 72.4% of the vote. With each successive election, there had been more and more concern that the results were not accurate. International monitors were not always welcome to observe elections.

While institutional checks and balances seem to have been eroded, there had been a degree of economic growth.

It seems that Nicaragua has a way of producing strong men who manage to stay around for a long time.

Mujica spent 15 years in solitary confinement. Of the left side of politics, he was well-known for his humility.

Rouseff was the first female president of Brazil. Between 1964 and the mid-1980s, Brazil was governed by a military dictatorship. Rouseff’s group, the Revolutionary Armed Vanguard Palmares, sought to oppose the military regime. Rouseff was arrested in 1970 and spent 3 years in jail, where she was tortured. She later reached the presidency. In the end, she would be thrown out of office by the Senate.

El Salvador’s Cerén started off as a school teacher. He became involved in the Salvadorian Civil War. He too made the transition from guerilla to politician, being elected in 2000. He ran for the presidency in 2014 and won with 50.11% of the vote in the second round.

In 2017, El Salvador became the first country to ban mining for environmental and health reasons. During his term, the country experienced a high homicide rate.

After he left office, he was charged with embezzlement and money laundering and was granted Nicaraguan citizenship. Cerén has his supporters but some suggest that his failure to deal with crime paved the way the emergence of a strongman like Nayib Bukele.

It is not always easy to assess each president’s legacy.

Mujica is often fondly remembered. He legalised marijuana and he legalised abortion. Uruguay’s same-sex marriage bill was passed during Mujica’s presidency. He was a critic of excessive greed. He advocated for protecting the environment. He came out prison much like Mandela had – leaving his hatred at the gate. His humility shone through.

There are concerns that Ortega has been able to game the system and maintain the facade of democracy while having sweeping control.

Rouseff hasn’t completely disappeared from the international scene. In 2023 she became President of the New Development Bank, attached to the BRIC group of nations.

Petro is still in the midst of things. He has recently shepherded through pension reforms. Legacy is viewed differently over time. Leaders usually act as lightening rods while they are in office. Petro’s legacy is not yet set in stone.