Australia and the World Past and Present

In short, not long. At least not at the same level of intensity.

If the US announced that it was ceasing the export of military equipment to Israel, it would seriously degrade Israel’s capacity to wage war in Gaza.

Israel does have strong domestic capacity for producing some weaponry.

But the US is the main supplier for advanced platforms. These include items such as fighter jets and helicopters.

The military ecosystem consists not only of hardware – financing is also key. The US provides Israel through Foreign Military Financing and Foreign Military Sales.

To date, Israel has used tens of thousands of artillery rounds, bombs and guided munitions.

Israel is dependent on the US supply chain for advanced air-to-ground missiles.

Israel can produce bullets, rockets and some small arms. Alternatively, these could also be procured from other suppliers.

Israel’s campaign in Gaza in continuous. High intensity aerial bombing is a characteristic of Israel’s current approach.

If the US turned off the tap, it would have a massive impact on the conflict.

It would not necessarily stop the conflict.

Israel does have stockpiles of various ordinance.

But in time these would be run down.

A US refusal to supply weapons would force the IDF to slow the pace of its operations.

The intensity of aerial bombardment would need to reduce.

The US supply of advanced missiles makes the aerial war possible. If jet-launched missiles suddenly became scarce, it would put pressure on the IDF to conduct more ground operations. Air operations allow IDF soldiers to maintain a certain distance from Hamas fighters. There is always the risk of a plane being shot down by and RPG for example, but the risk is less than being on the ground. Once Israeli soldiers are on the ground and moving from location to location inside Gaza, the risk to them goes up markedly. The risk of higher IDF casualties is another factor that could lead to fewer operations inside Gaza or to operations that are at a significantly lower pace.

Another thing to consider is that the US doesn’t only provide hardware. They also share information and provide critical intelligence to Israel.

The US remains Israel’s main military backer. As such, President Trump has more influence with Prime Minister Netanyahu than any other world leader. To this point, Trump’s support for Israel has been very strong. His decision to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran is but one example of this. It is not a given that any other US President would have authorised such a move.

At this point, there is no change to US policy on the horizon. But who knows? President Trump has a habit of wild policy swings.

If the US turned of the tap, it wouldn’t necessarily stop the war but it would certainly force a change in the way in which it was conducted.