Australia and the World Past and Present

For some reason, Donald Trump seems focused on Venezuela. Tensions have increased over time. No other Latin American country draws as much of his attention.

Trump’s first administration focused on illegal immigration. In recent years, many Venezuelans have fled their country, and some have travelled all the way to the U.S. There was a lot of rhetoric about drugs being brought in to the U.S and the presence of gangs, such as the Tren de Aragua. But in his first term, Trump wasn’t blowing up boats in international waters or sending aircraft carriers towards Venezuela.

Now he is.

On 16 December Trump ordered a naval blockade of sanctioned oil tankers from Venezuela.

Recently, the USS Gerald Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the world, has been operating close to the Venezuelan coast.

U.S. forces have been seizing sanctioned oil tankers.

The U.S. has unilaterally placed Sanctions on Venezuelan oil. The EU has taken some action in regards to Venezuela. They have introduced travel bans and have frozen assets. The sanction of Venezuelan oil has not been sanctioned by an international alliance. It has not been authorised by the United Nations. That is not a surprise. Such a mission would need the consent of Security Council. Russia and China sit in the Council and would veto any sanction proposal. Both are recipients of Venezuelan oil. The U.S. interprets this as another example of UN failure to take concrete action. Trump is prepared to got it alone.

Venezuelan President, Nicolás Maduro, has claimed that the U.S. is engaged in piracy. Trump has claimed that Maduro heads a drug-trafficking cartel.

The U.S. military is bombing boats it alleges are involved in drug-trafficking to the U.S, but doesn’t provide evidence to back up its claims. On at least one occasion, a first missile strike was followed up with a second, even though the boat had already been rendered immobile.

Trump openly talks about regime change.

In 2024, Venezuela produced around 950,000 barrels per day (bpd), which was well below its potential.

In the past, it was producing between 3 and 3.7 million bpd.

Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world (an estimated 303 billion barrels), which is roughly 8 times more than Nigeria’s proven crude oil reserves.

Some suggest that oil is the real reason that Trump is intervening in Venezuela.

But, the U.S. does not currently source much of its oil from the South American nation.

First of all, the US is a major producer in its own right. Trump is a keen supporter of domestic oil production. These days, the U.S. is often a net exporter of oil.

Around 50-60% of U.S. oil imports come from Canada. Around 7-10% comes from Mexico, which is a significant source due to its geographical proximity.

Oil also comes from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

By late 2024, Venezuelan oil only accounted for 3.5% of total U.S. imports.

Speaking of oil, it is interesting to consider whether oil is a factor in Trump’s desire to annex Greenland. Does he wish to control oil sources around the globe and does this drive some of his foreign policy?

Greenland doesn’t currently produce any oil.

From the 1970s to the 2010s, major international companies conducted exploratory drilling in Greenland’s offshore and onshore basins. None of this drilling resulted in proven commercial oil fields. But, geological surveys suggest significant potential. Greenland’s government has ceased issuing new exploration licences. Perhaps Greenland is an attractive proposition for Trump. If he had his way, it is doubtful that there would be a moratorium on oil exploration.

An additional factor may be a desire for the U.S. to reaffirm Latin America as its sphere of influence. In 1823, President James Monroe announced his Monroe Doctrine. According to Monroe, the Western Hemisphere was America’s backyard and it would not tolerate European powers interfering in the region.

We might be seeing a perfect storm of factors coming to together to explain why Trump seems to be obsessed with Venezuela. There is the migration issue, there is the drug issue, there is the oil issue. Whatever the amount of drugs coming from Venezuela may be, through Trump’s military actions, he is seen to be doing something and he probably looks strong to his domestic audience. While Venezuelan oil makes only a small percentage of the mix in the U.S. today, perhaps Trump envisions a more intense development of reserves in the future and is positioning the U.S. to be able to exploit it.

Like the recent military action in Nigerian, Trump seems to be creeping towards becoming enmeshed in foreign adventures. Trump would say that he is already at war, that drug traffickers, gangs and cartels, declared a drug war on the U.S., and he has been forced to respond.