Australia and the World Past and Present

In the last year, the Liberal-national Coalition has fallen apart twice.

It is no small thing.

The Coalition held government between 1949-1972. This was the Menzies era. After this time, there has been more equality in the two-party dominant system, with control seesawing back and forth.

Malcolm Fraser led the nation between 1975 and 83.

John Howard had a marathon run. His government lasted from 1996 to 2007.

Between 2013 and 2022 , there was the succession of Liberal leaders – Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison.

All up, the Coalition ruled Australia for around 51 years over this period.

Conversely, since 1972, the Labor Party has been in government for around 34 years.

So we can see that the Coalition had electoral dominance

After the 2025 federal election, in which the Coalition suffered a heavy defeat, the National Party broke the long-standing Coalition agreement with the Liberal Party for the first time in decades.

The Nationals wanted a new Coalition agreement that firmly enshrined a set of policy positions they had campaigned on. These included support for nuclear energy, a Regional Australia Future Fund, supermarket divestiture powers and improved regional communications. The Nationals also wanted greater freedom for Nationals MPs to dissent from Liberals on policy issues

The split was short-lived — within about a week, the parties reached a compromise on policies and re-formed the Coalition.

The Coalition split again early in 2026 when several Nationals shadow ministers resigned or were forced out after crossing the floor or opposing the Liberal shadow leadership’s stance on new hate-speech laws introduced by the Labor government.

The Coalition reunited again in early February.

The Coalition split was not ideal. There is an argument that unity is king. There is strength in unity and weakness in division.

But the Liberals and Nationals have had some real challenges which come down to policy and values differences.

Much of this has revolved around energy policy. The Liberals and the nationals have different ideas in the area. The Liberals are more keen on renewable power generation. The Liberal Party has historically done better in the major cities than the regions. The cities have seen major demographic change. They have generally moved to the left meaning that Labor or Teal “independents” have picked up seats at the expense of the Liberals. Liberals will need to appeal to these voters in order to win seats back. That includes a policy for more renewable energy.

But wind turbines and solar panel farms are not placed in cities. It is in the regions that these changes are seen. The Nationals make a few points. First, they say that the move to renewables is overstated. It can form part of the energy mix, but it is inherently intermittent. It also has an effect of industry – particularly heavy industry and manufacturing. Factories need reasonably-priced and reliable electricity if they are going to compete against the manufacturing in other countries.

There are less jobs in the regions and the Nationals want to protect the jobs that they have.

One potential opportunity of a Coalition split is that the two parties can campaign more strongly to their respective constituencies. The Liberals could campaign harder on renewable energy and not be held back by the Nationals. Then they can pick up more votes to the left and take them back from Labor and the Teals.

The Nationals can campaign more freely on protecting rural landscapes, regional jobs and pick up more votes on the right, and away from One Nation.

A Liberal-National split may not be ideal and it may have more negatives than positives. But as outlined above, it is not without a silver lining. It could lead to harvesting more votes. At the moment, this is the big challenge for the 2 parties – to claw back more support. If they do it separately it is not the end of the world.

Then, if they were in striking distance of forming government, they could rejoin forces. They are natural partners in government. What are the alternatives? The Greens would never form an alliance with the Liberals. It is not a given that Teals would either. There would be no Labor-Liberal Coalition. A Liberal-One Nation partnership? Its doubtful.