Australia and the World Past and Present

Following the initial strikes, President Trump has called on the Iranian people to rise up and topple the regime.

The trouble is that it is the Revolutionary Guard that has all the weapons and the general population does not.

The Revolutionary Guard have proven over time that it is not afraid to brutally crack down on the Iranian people.

It is a sure bet that most Iranians are not fans of their own government. They tend to be a highly educated and sophisticated people. They would like to see greater freedoms.

The economy was in the doldrums even before the latest round of conflict began.

Cost of living has been too high.

Iranians were already out on the streets, demonstrating over the state of the economy.

There are few, if any, examples of regime change resulting solely from air strikes.

Trump’s call to arms has echoes of George Bush Senior’s appeal to Iraqis to rise up against Saddam Hussein near the end of the 1991 Gulf War.

Many Shia and Kurds did rise up, but they were not backed up by American military forces.

Unsurprisingly, once the war was over and Saddam was firmly back in control, they faced brutal retribution.

This is well-remembered in the Middle East and I’m sure that many Iranians will weigh the prospect of revolt very carefully.

And consider this – would the Iranian people consider Trump more trust-worthy and consistent than George Bush Senior? How many of them believe that Trump will have their back?