Australia and the World Past and Present

Iran is weaker than it was a few years ago.

The event that sparked off Iran’s recent decline was the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel.

Since then, Israel has seriously degraded Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Years ago, Israeli agents planted explosives in pager devices that ended up in the hands of Hezbollah operatives. Israeli forces waited for their moment and then detonated the devices in a coordinated manner. This took out multiple Hezbollah operatives and also compromised their communications network. It made it harder to plan and carry out coordinated attacks against Israel.

The Assad regime collapsed in Syria.

Bashar al-Assad belongs to the Alawite sect, a branch of Shia Islam. The Assad family had ruled Syria since 1971 and their Alawite identity had been a central factor in the survival of their regime.

The Syrian regime had been strong allies of Iran for decades.

Iran provided military assistance including weapons, advisors, and training. They also supplied economic aid and investment.

During the Syrian Civil War, Iran’s support was critical to keeping Assad in power.

Assad’s regime and Iran shared a common opposition to Israeli and the American influence in the region.

Syria under Assad has been a key transit route for Iranian weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran appreciated Assad as a reliable Shia-aligned leader in a predominantly Sunni region.

Assad valued Iranian support and saw Tehran as a guarantor against U.S. and Israeli pressure.

While they didn’t share identical ideologies there was overlap in their geopolitical goals.

But Assad is no longer in power and this has weakened Iran’s influence in the region.

Just a few years ago, the Iran was much more influential in the region than it is now.

Israel was surrounded and on the defensive.

Since that time, Iran has suffered blows on at least 3 different fronts outside of its own territory.

And now the regime is fighting for its own survival.