Australia and the World Past and Present

What a shamozzle.

The US-UK relationship is in the doldrums.

Reagan and Thatcher had a certain affinity with one another.

Even George W. Bush and Tony Blair got along famously, despite being from different sides of the political isle.

Bush and Blair went into Iraq together. At least they discussed their entry into war before it began, and were on the same page to some extent.

Trump and Keir Starmer, are not natural bedfellows politically, nor temperamentally.

Their relationship is strained, and the majority of the fault lies with Trump.

Starmer has said “we will not be drawn into the wider war.”

In recent weeks, Trump has called on traditional allies to send warships to the Straights of Hormuz.

Britain has minesweeping ships that it could deploy.

But the UK is aghast at the seeming lack of US planning for the war.

And the lack of consultation.

They naturally ask what is the motive of the war?

What are the aims?

What is the strategy for the beginning, middle and end of the war?

What is the exit strategy?

Germany has already ruled out military action.

The German Defence Minister has said, “This is not our war, we have not started it.”

Starmer was slow to allow US planes to use UK military bases.

This enraged Trump. But what did he expect? Trump simply launched attacks and asked for permission or help after the fact. These matters need to be discussed with allies beforehand, not when the planes are already in the air. Trump has put allies in difficult positions – positions in which they can’t respond to quickly or in a considered way.

Trump has continually demeaned Starmer in public statements. He has said, “This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with.”

Mind you, it is not FDR that Starmer is dealing with. Trump is not a proponent of some New Deal. Trump is more likely to tear down the social welfare state than to add to it.

And Trump is no George Bush Senior, who went to the United Nations in order to secure a wide coalition to help drive Iraq out of Kuwait. Bush Senior sought and received a UN authorisation of force.

And Trump is no George Bush Junior, who at least tried to get support at the UN for his intervention in Iraq in 2003. He didn’t get his authorisation and some key allies, like France, decided not to join in the invasion. But he still managed to cobble together a decent “Coalition of the Willing”.

Trump has gone off almost unilaterally. Israel has been in the conflict from the start. But that’s really it. Trump has started the recent round of conflict without laying the groundwork – and it shows.

He even has the Canadian Prime Minister saying that it appears as though the war is “inconsistent with international law”.

And Australia? The Australian Prime Minister has been very quiet. The US and Australia are formal military allies through the ANZUS Treaty. Australia has fought alongside US forces in most wars. We were in WWII together, the Korean War, Vietnam, the first Gulf War and the second Gulf War.

The Australian government is not a fan of the Iranian regime. Most governments around the world understand the brutality of it and the danger it poses to world security.

But Australia is also a supporter of a rules-based global order.

Furthermore, while we live in a globalised world, and security threats can sometimes originate on the other side of the world, it could be argued that our national interests are centered in the Pacific region.

Like all nations, we have limited military resources.

For Australia to get involved in military action in the Middle East, it would need to cross a very high threshold.

The Australian government would be in a much a better position to send military forces if sound planning had been done, and there was a strong case in international law.

No, the Australian government is quiet.

It also doesn’t want to upset Trump. He might slap on more tariffs. So we say nothing hoping that it all blows over.

And many traditional allies follow a similar strategy. They say that they are studying their options and considering things carefully.

How can they have any certainty that Trump will continue on the current course and not go off on some other tangent?

The reality is that America under Trump is a less trustworthy ally than it was under Biden, Obama, George W. Bush, Clinton, George H. Bush or Reagan. Take your pick.