Australia and the World Past and Present

Trumps wants allies to send warships to the Straights of Hormuz.

Nations mentioned include China, France, Japan and South Korea.

Trump argues that if a nation receives oil that passes through the Straights, then it should have an interest in reopening the shipping lanes. He thinks that they have a responsibility. He believes that they should step up and be counted.

Trump has been met with obfuscation.

Allies are thinking things over. They are considering their options.

China is unlikely to assist the US in any way.

Trump seems to have a strange affinity for strong men – even China’s leader.

But at the same time he sees China as an economic and military rival.

France has ruled out sending warships. France is part of NATO and NATO nations have made the good point that the alliance is a defensive one, not an offensive one.

Some allies, such as the UK, have technology that could be used.

They have drones that could seek out and destroy mines.

South Korea is very dependent on oil from the region.

65 to 70% of South Korea’s oil originates in the Middle East.

Additionally, about 20% of South Korea’s LNG comes from the region.

The country has one of the most advanced militaries in Asia.

It has naval destroyers, submarines and fighter jets.

It could help with naval escort missions.

But historically, its focus has been on its neighbour, North Korea, with which it is still technically at war.

South Korea could send some form of military assistance to the Straights of Hormuz, but any assistance is likely to be very limited.

South Korea sees its national security interests firmly in Asia and the Pacific.

What about Japan?

Japan and the US are formal military allies and they have had close security ties for half a century. Japan hosts an array of US military bases.

Japan is rather unique.

After WWII, its new constitution renounced war as a sovereign right and rejects the use of force to settle disputes.

This is stipulated in Article 9.

The general understanding, that had stood for the last 50 years or so, is that Japan’s military forces can’t engage in direct fighting.

In recent times, the country has provided logistical support (such as transportation) in times of conflict. It has shared intelligence and allowed access to military bases.

Revision of the constitution has long been discussed.

Revision has been more popular on the conservative side of politics.

It was a key issue for the late LDP Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe.

In 2014/15 there was some tinkering with Japan’s pacificist stance.

These changes were summed up in term “collective self-defence.”

This framework maintains that Japan’s military forces could be used if a series of condition were met:

An ally had to have been be attacked. Japan’s survival must be threatened. The use of force must be the last resort and be minimal, and it must be approved cabinet and the parliament.

So let’s examine whether these might apply to the current situation.

Has an ally been attacked? The latest round of fighting was launched by Israel and the US. It appears more as an offensive war than a defensive one.

Does it threaten Japan’s survival? The conflict is on the other side of the world. Iran was not directly attacking Japan prior the commencement of hostilities. And Japan remains far from the theatre of fighting.

Japan receives over 90% of its oil form the Middle East and perhaps around 80% passes through the Straights of Hormuz. So Japan certainly has a national interest in the free passage of oil tankers in the region.

During WWII, Japan argued that lack of access to oil was one of the reasons it launched the war and took control of territory in East and Southeast Asia.

A prolonged denial of oil to Japan would certainly have dramatic economic consequences for the country, but would it be an existential threat? Probably not.

Was the US/Israeli strike on Iran a last resort? There has been mixed messaging on this. Israel was probably most vocal in saying that Iran posed a threat. Many observers believe that an Iranian attack was not imminent.

Most countries are urging a diplomatic solution.

If Japan did choose to assist the US in the Straights, undoubtedly that assistance would be very limited.

Japan may want to be seen to be standing with its ally, but it will be wary of being drawn into escalating conflict.

Military action must also be approved by the cabinet and parliament. Prime Minister Takaichi and her LDP secured a landslide win in the last election. In the February general election the LDP won 316 seats out of 465 in the lower house, well above the 233 needed for a simple majority.

America’s allies are not as gung ho as the US or Israel are for this current conflict.

They are very wary of getting involved. There is widespread concern that the conflict is not well-grounded in international law and has not been well planned. Many are urging more space for diplomacy.