Australia and the World Past and Present

In recent weeks there has been renewed speculation about the fate of Cuba.

On 16 March, Trump said, “I do believe I’ll be … having the honor ​of taking Cuba. That’s a big honor. Taking Cuba in some form. I ​mean, whether I free it, take it. Think I can do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth.” ​

Trump is increasingly flexing US military muscle around the globe.

In recent months he has embarked upon military action in Venezuela and Iran.

Compared to these two nations, Cuba is tiny.

If Trump wanted to, he could easily take Cuba. The US military would have little difficulty in dealing with the armed forces of Cuba.

It would be akin to an elephant crushing a mosquito.

There is not much love lost between the US and Cuba.

The US has maintained an economic embargo on the island for over 6 decades.

A Communist regime still holds power in Havana.

There is a long history of Cubans fleeing their homeland by boat and forming diaspora communities in the United States. There is a strong Cuban diaspora community in Miami.

Cuba was previously receiving oil form Venezuela.

That has dried up following the latest US action in Caracas and the island has experienced widespread blackouts.

The United States now has Secretary of State with Cuban heritage – Marco Rubio.

So what are Rubio’s thoughts on Cuba?

He is no fan of the current regime.

He is widely perceived as a hard-liner when it comes to the Cuban regime.

He favours regime change. He wants to see an end to the communist government.

He supports sustained pressure on the regime.

Is not for accommodation. He is not for rapprochement.

He was opposed the President Obama’s policy or normalising relations with the Caribbean island.

Rubio wants to see a government in Havana that is more democratic and more market-orientated.

When Fidel Castro came to power, he nationalised US-owned property.

A US embargo led to the freezing of Cuban assets in the US.

Financial transactions with Cuba have also been prohibited.

There is an almost total ban on imports and exports between the 2 countries.

Despite the embargo, Cuba can import some food and medicine.

The US government will not allow its citizens to travel to Cuba for tourism.

Between 2014 and 2017, we witnessed what has been dubbed “the Cuban thaw”. There was a restoration of diplomatic relations. The was a relaxation on remittances to Cuba.

Trump reversed this approach during his first administration.

He clamped down on remittances.

The embargo has been controversial. One key question is whether it hurts the regime or population at large?

The UN General Assembly has condemned the embargo on multiple occasions.

It is astounding that despite the embargo, the regime in Cuba has survived. This sustained policy of the worlds’ most powerful state has failed to oust the communist regime.

During the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), President Kennedy gave an assurance that in return for the USSR removing its missiles from the island, America would never invade Cuba.

This undertaking was conditional with Kennedy adding, “provided Cuba was not used for offensive purposes.”

However, this assurance was not part of a formal treaty and it was not ratified by Congress.

It was an undertaking made by a single US President almost 60 years ago and has not been codified in law.

Does anyone really expect President Trump to be constrained Kennedy’s promise?

Trump has shown that he is not a fan of diplomatic niceties. He doesn’t take much notice of international law or norms.

He believes in the law of the jungle – where the strong take what they want, and remake the world according to their whims and desires.

Trump’s international relations are not driven by morality, laws or norms. They are governed by power – pure and simple.

So how has the regime in Havana managed to survive?

During the Cold War, the USSR provided subsidised oil and a guaranteed market for Cuban sugar.

After the fall of the USSR, Venezuela became an important backer of the regime, as did China.

Tourist spending has boosted government coffers.

The oil Cuba received from Venezuela in the 2000s was particularly crucial.

Domestically, the regime maintained strong intelligence networks.

It controlled media.

It retained a stranglehold on political activities on the island. It dominated civil society.

On the more positive side of the ledger, the country has universal healthcare and a high degree of literacy.

Elites have survived while the wider population has suffered.

While the US refuses to have anything to do with Cuba, that is not the case with other nations.

Many governments have diplomatic and trade links.

Spain maintains diplomatic ties and is a large foreign investor in tourism. Spain exports machinery and consumer goods.

France maintains economic ties. France invests in infrastructure and finance. It exports industrial equipment and imports primary products such as rum.

Germany also has diplomatic links.

The Netherlands is influential in finance.

The UK maintains diplomatic links and exports machinery and vehicles to the island.

To date the Cuban regime has proved remarkably resilient. It has survived a sustained embargo from the world’s most powerful superpower.

It shows once again how difficult regime change is if you don’t have boots on the ground.

It would be easier for Trump to take Cuba, than it has been for him topple of the regime in Iran.

And on past form, is if difficult to rule out Trump making a play for the island before his second term is up.