Australia and the World Past and Present

It has been a difficult time for the Coalition in recent years.

The Liberal Party in particular has had a beating while under Anthony Albanese, Labor has been sitting pretty.

The Liberals had hoped that Albanese would be limited to one term, but he won a second term with an increased majority.

In the 2019 election, the Coalition won 77 seats in the lower house while Labor managed 68. The Greens took 1 seat, independents 3 and One Nation had none.

In 2022, there was a change of government with Labor winning 77 seats. The Coalition had fallen to 58. The number of National Party members remained rather stable. The Greens got a bump up to 4 seats. A big change was the number of independents elected. The number rose to 10. One Nation still had no seats in the lower house.

In 2025, Labor leapt ahead to 94 while the Coalition dropped further to 43. This was a worrying trend for the Liberals. Once again the number of National Party seats remained relatively stable, meaning that the bulk of the losses was felt by their Coalition partner. The number of independents remained steady and One Nation remained without representation in the lower chamber.

My suspicion is that many Australian voters have moved to the Left, helping to account for the Labor Party’s increased representation.

At the same time, this has provoked a reaction from more conservative voters and strengthened their resolve to resist the leftward movement. This incentivises them to look more seriously at other rightist parties – parties that are perhaps more extreme or vocal in their views.

So, much of the realignment is happening on the right side of politics.

The Liberal Party is seeing its votes being cannibalised. On the left, votes are being harvested by Labor or independents. On the right, votes are moving to One Nation.

The Liberal Party has remained rather consistent in its values and policy approaches.

But the issue is that many voters have changed where they sit.

It is a difficult issue to resolve for the Liberals.

If they take a more hardline approach, they can harvest votes back from One Nation but they will lose other votes to independents and Labor.

While One Nation is surging in its primary vote, as yet this has not translated into large numbers of lower house seats.

One Nation’s first seat in the House of Representatives was caused by the defection of Barnaby Joyce from the National Party. One Nation has only just recently just picked up another seat through the Farrer by-election.

Right now, changes in voting patterns are seriously affecting rightist parties. It is forcing the Liberal Party in particular to think about what it needs to change in order to claw back votes.